Hulu Plus Will Be Worth $100 Million in Revenue in 2011

Hulu Plus SubscriptionRecently I’ve written about why I think the Hulu Plus subscription model will be successful.  Yesterday, Peter Kafka (@pkafka) wrote in AllThingsD that Hulu’s price point is both too high for consumers and too low to satisfy media companies.  I respectfully disagree.

My prediction is that Hulu Plus will be driving more than $100 million in incremental revenue for the company in 2011.   If Hulu grows modestly from its current 19.5 million monthly uniques in the U.S. according to comScore*, and they’re able to convert a small fraction of that audience at $9.95, the numbers are compelling even accounting for the likely double-digit monthly churn.   I expect that the service will reach or exceed a million subscribers by the end of 2011.   Meanwhile, 30% margin or $30+ million would be welcome for a company that only recently announced profitability, particularly if they’re able to avoid traffic cannibalization on their existing free, ad-sponsored streams.

Granted, most media companies are making more on their own sites, but this is largely upside to their existing online revenue.  Meanwhile, a paid model preserves the “premium” value of the majority of their catalog.

Beyond the financial benefit, offering a paid subscription also provides several strategic benefits to Hulu:

  • Gives them a path to move off the desktop and onto mobile and the TV.   The media companies are adamant that consumers not be trained that video content is “free” on mobile as they’ve become accustomed to online.
  • Opens up the service to new content providers including cable, and a much larger catalog of content from their existing partners

Is $9.95 monthly too much for consumers to pay?  When your content is exclusive, and more importantly, the experience is this compelling, I think a small but meaningful segment of customers will open up their wallets.   Of course, that is assuming that Hulu’s subscription offer and experience demonstrate the same outstanding execution as their free service (and marketing) to date.  Many services have failed at charging for video online, but Hulu is in a unique position to finally succeed.

* Footnote: Interestingly this is substantially less than the 43 million uniques announced by Hulu CEO Jason Kilar back in December, perhaps due to the comScore hybrid measurement debacle; I’m using the lower numbers to be conservative

‘Hulu Plus': Hulu Is Readying $9.95 Subscriptions, And They Will Work

Dawn Chmielewski and Meg James reported tonight that Hulu will begin testing a $9.95 “Hulu Plus” subscription offering as soon as May 24.  According to their LA Times article, the Hulu Plus offering will open access for viewers to watch many more shows than are currently offered.  (Hulu’s content license restrictions currently allow viewers access to only the five most recent episodes for most shows.)

Last month, I wrote that for Hulu, advertising won’t be enough.  Tonight, I predict Hulu’s subscription program will be successful with consumers, and will be a business success for Hulu.

First, here’s why — unlike many other subscription programs — Hulu’s will work:

  • Outstanding experience: Hulu has nailed the consumer experience. From their innovative video player to their Hulu Desktop application, they have an experience that is worth paying for.
  • Shows people desire: Hulu has the  TV shows that every household knows and wants to watch.  These are among the most popular entertainment brands around.
  • Exclusive access: The vast majority of consumers (i.e. those who won’t use BitTorrent) simply can’t get this content anywhere else, thanks to Hulu’s exclusive agreements with content providers.
  • A great value proposition: Compared to typical cable TV, on-demand packages, and Netflix, Hulu offers outstanding variety at a modest monthly fee.

Net, this is an impressive combination.  Unlike many of the subscription offerings being floated by others, which move information that can be found in many places behind a paywall, Hulu’s offering is unique enough and compelling enough that  it’s worth consumers paying for.

As for the business benefit to Hulu, they are already receiving high monetization.  At reported $100MM annualized revenues over comScore-reported 695MM pageviews per month, Hulu already monetizes at $12 per 1,000 pageviews.  Even if subscribers view 10 times as many pages per month as average users, Hulu will still more than double its revenues from those customers.

With an outstanding value proposition and great monetization potential, this subscription program is a win-win for Hulu and its audience.

For Hulu Too, Ads Won’t Be Enough

Michael Learmonth at AdAge published an analysis today of Hulu’s financial conundrum:  while Hulu wants to remain purely ad-supported in order to grow its audience, it is struggling with the economic realities that make its current advertising-only model lackluster.

But while Learnmonth’s article portrays “an ideological battle over its future” of whether to stay solely ad-supported vs. consumer supported, I can’t help but read his analysis and take away that it is inevitable:  for Hulu too, just like for the rest of the media industry, a healthy and sustainable model will only be reached when consumers pay for content.

Hulu has attained remarkable success.  It’s the #2 video site by audience, and has created a true breakthrough consumer experience for video that is best in class — and miraculously not only survived the minefield of investor and content provider relationships but prospered with them.  But with the hefty 70% revenue split paid to content providers, Hulu is still challenged to make money on a standalone basis.  Just as the TV networks themselves have seen, the dual (consumer+advertiser) revenue streams of the cable and satellite systems create a much healthier model.

Hulu’s struggles are just another case of how — almost no matter how large the publisher is — advertising revenues are no longer enough for a healthy publishing model.  With an explosion of content created and the huge dispersion of where consumer eyeballs land, the advertising dollars can’t be piled on the way they used to be for the top publishers of content.

It is time for Hulu to — creatively — start offering premium consumer services.

The good news is that Hulu is in pole position to succeed at getting consumers to pay part of the bill.  Under CEO Jason Kilar’s leadership, Hulu has demonstrated that they are extraordinarily strong at product development and partner relationships in a way that lets them make a surprisingly great experience for consumers even with the myriad license restrictions that they need to deal with on the back end.  On top of which, their proprietary content library is worth billions and has earned them destination value for consumers.  They’ve got advertiser relationships and track records, and have even established a strong premium pricing precedent at reasonable fill rates on the ad side so they can keep their appeal broad with a free basic offering.

With those great assets, Hulu has the opportunity to build new applications, content packages, features, and other enhancements that are compelling enough to earn consumer payment.  All of which will put them in a healthier position to not only make profits for themselves, but for their partners.  In fact, for Hulu, it’s not only for the good of themselves and their partners that they should add paid offerings, but for the good of the industry in pioneering the best ways to offer experiences the consumer will pay for.